Updated 1st August 2023
Predispatch model | p7day model | |
|---|---|---|
Model_id | 20230729_213406_CB_2 | 20230213_012319_CB_7D_1 |
Previous model release date | 20th April 2023 | 20th April 2023 |
Latest release date (after retraining) | 1st August 2023 | 1st August 2023 |
Machine Learning Algorithm | Ensemble predictor: gradient boosting | Ensemble predictor: gradient boosting |
Training Period | 1st October 2020 to 20th July 2023 | 1st October 2020 to 20th July 2023 |
Hyper-parameter type | A | A |
Hyper-parameter notes | No weighting across time periods | No weighting across time periods |
Target | Dispatchprice (30min resolution) | Dispatchprice (30min resolution) |
Input (and training) variables | PREDISPATCHPRICE rrp DISPATCHPRICE last 3 day average actual RRP for same time PREDISPATCHREGIONSUM (intervention = 0) hours_out time_of_day day_type (weekday_or_weekend) dispatchableload netinterchage (availablegeneration - uigf) (dispatchablegeneration - scheduled_clearedmw) ss_solar_clearedmw ss_solar_uigf ss_wind_clearedmw ss_wind_uigf totaldemand totalintermittentgeneration | STPASA_REGIONSOLUTION hours_out time_of_day day_type (weekday_or_weekend) aggregatepasaavailability aggregatescheduledload netinterchangeunderscarcity aggregatecapacityavailable ss_solar_cleared ss_wind_uigf ss_wind_cleared ss_solar_uigf demand10 demand50 totalintermittentgeneration demand_and_nonschedgen |
Validation Results
These are the results of the best model generated through our experimentation process and compares the results with the previous model across our validation set (our test period).
All error metrics are in $/MWhr.
PD Results
Metric/Region | Absolute Mean Error New Model | Absolute Mean Error Previous Model | Average Error New Model | Average Error Previous Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
NSW1 | 37.16954 | 63.55691 | 19.63544 | 38.2957 |
VIC1 | 29.91769 | 37.21212 | 6.468355 | 2.998254 |
QLD1 | 36.46522 | 132.3778 | 15.79482 | 112.1593 |
SA1 | 45.14167 | 65.13762 | 19.56986 | 35.5676 |
TAS1 | 19.53866 | 17.71054 | 9.396361 | 6.877853 |
7 Day Results
Metric/Region | Absolute Mean Error New Model | Absolute Mean Error Previous Model | Average Error New Model | Average Error Previous Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
NSW1 | 34.06431 | 48.10104 | 15.01693 | 37.08693 |
VIC1 | 31.66891 | 44.83715 | 1.215206 | 19.20936 |
QLD1 | 39.10014 | 53.91976 | 17.32682 | 35.32128 |
SA1 | 45.46252 | 104.0136 | 21.62486 | 78.54663 |
TAS1 | 24.07958 | 45.70449 | 14.92562 | 39.71673 |
Variables that imply binding interconnectors (such as limits and marginal values) are currently not included as features.