Model updated 28th January 2025

Summary

The retraining process resulted in two new models, one for PD and one for 7day price forecast. After experimentation we retrained the price forecasting models using existing features and hyper parameter settings. The main benefit of the retrained model is that it includes the most recent market outcomes which will therefore be factored into the model. (see validation results table below comparing the previous models with the new models).

Training period

Both PD and 7day price forecast models were trained on data between 01-01-2022 and 01-24-2025.

The market suspension period and a period after the Callide explosion were removed from the training data.

Validation set

This model was not validated, rather we felt that it was better to train the model up to the most recent time period. Earlier models have maintained the feature set and hyper parameter settings.

New features (input data) exceptions

• The feature set is the same as the previous model. The main benefit of the new model is that more recent market data are consumed in the training process. The training does not weight the most recent market data.

  • A number of experiments were conducted by changing the feature list and some hyper parameters however this didn’t not achieve a significant benefit to the model tests. Hence for consistency we have not made changes to the model other than extending the training period to the most recent market data.

Validation Results

Previous experimentation demonstrates that the current model features and settings provides a pretty good model across most market conditions. Therefore a validation set was not used rather the new model was trained right up to the latest market outcomes.

Average error is equal to Predication minus real prices.

All error metrics are in $/MWhr.

PD Results

7 Day Results