Updated 1st August 2023

Summary

The retraining process resulted in two new models, one for PD and one for 7day price forecast. After considerable experimentation we retrained the price forecasting models with a considerable increase in accuracy (see validation results table below comparing the previous models with the new models).

Training period

• Both PD and 7day price forecast models were trained on data between 01-10-2020 and 20-08-2023.

  • The market suspension period and a period after the Callide explosion were removed from the training data.

New features (input data) exceptions

• A new “recent prices feature” was added to give the model some context for the current pricing environment. This feature is the median price for a window around the forecast time for the most recent three days. For example, for a forecast occurring in 2 days at 11am, the model generated the median value for prices between 10am-12pm for the three days before the forecast was run.

• A number of additional experiments were conducted on the 7 day forecast model, with the major modifications including:

  • The 50th percent probability of demand features were augmented with 10th percent probability of demand data

  • The new recent prices features mentioned previously

  • A new time of day feature

  • A new weekday/weekend feature.

...