Model updated

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28th January 2025

Summary

The retraining process resulted in two new models, one for PD and one for 7day price forecast. After experimentation we retrained the price forecasting models using existing features and hyper parameter settings. The increase in accuracy (using Absolute Mean Error, AME) was approximately 4%main benefit of the retrained model is that it includes the most recent market outcomes which will therefore be factored into the model. (see validation results table below comparing the previous models with the new models).

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Both PD and 7day price forecast models were trained on data between 01-0401-2021 2022 and 0801-0424-20242025.

The market suspension period and a period after the Callide explosion were removed from the training data.

Validation set

The This model was validated by predicting the price between 09-04-2024 and 30-04-2024not validated, rather we felt that it was better to train the model up to the most recent time period. Earlier models have maintained the feature set and hyper parameter settings.

New features (input data) exceptions

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Validation Results

These are the results of the best model generated through our experimentation process and compares the results with the previous model across our validation set (our test period).

Note that errors are considerably higher because the validation set was unusually volatilePrevious experimentation demonstrates that the current model features and settings provides a pretty good model across most market conditions. Therefore a validation set was not used rather the new model was trained right up to the latest market outcomes.

Average error is equal to Predication minus real prices.

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7 Day Results

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