pd4castr 7 DAY Summary
7 DAY Performance is measured for forecasts beyond the predispatch time horizon only.
pd4castr 7d performance metrics page measures the historical accuracy of the latest pd4castr 7d model as of the model’s release date and compares performance with AEMO’s forecasts over the same period. The performance metrics used are Absolute Mean Error and Average Error.
The user also has the option to apply conditions to the metrics by limiting any or all of the;
rundatetime range,
this allows you to measure performance over a specific time period,
forecast settlement hours,
this allows you to measure performance for a specific time of day, e.g. evening peak, and
actual rrp range
this allows you to exclude certain price outcomes that may skew the results.
Table contents
All fields in the table are averages for the sample size shown.
Absolute Mean Error is the average of the magnitude of the difference between pd4castr or AEMO and the actual price outcome. Note that we don’t use mean squared error because price outcomes do not follow a normal distribution and volatile price outliers would otherwise dominate the metric.
Average Error is the average of the difference between pd4castr or AEMO and the actual price outcome.
Average Price provides a frame of reference for the error metrics.
Sample size reflects both the length of time the model has been operating and the filters applied in Options (below).
Note that actual RRP for settlementdates between the half hour are not factored into the calculation.
Options
Options apply filters (conditions in the where clause) of the performance metrics.
By default all model forecasts after the release date are included in the metric calculations.
Rundatetime will measure performance for forecasts made between the rundatetimes (inclusive).
By default Min Date is set to the beginning of the pd4castr 7d service not from the release date of the model.
Settlement Date Hours will measure performance for forecast settlementdate hours between Min Hour and Max Hour. Note that forecasts on the half hour are included in the calculations.
Actual RRP will measure performance only for settlementdates where the actual RRP is between Min RRP and Max RRP.
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p7day unique features
You cannot chart AEMO historical price forecasts. Only the latest price forecast.
You can only chart a selected number of previous day model forecasts, specifically 07:00, 13:00 and 18:00.