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pd4castr 7 DAY Summary
pd4castr home page charts pd4castr and AEMO price forecasts as well as input data common to both forecasts. Historical rundatetimes can be included and compared for all data sets.
Model type and release date
This information is shown in both the home page and the link in DAEG. The convention follows:
Model_version: v[date][model_id]
For example: v2023.04.04A means that model_id, A, was last updated on the 4th of April 2023.
DAEG showing model version and link to pd4castr
Selecting Regions
Just like DAEG and WAEG you may select any number or regions to chart pd4castr’s forecast price. Note that the colour palette is fixed for each region.
Model inputs are charted for only a single region. If multiple regions are selected then the first selected region is charted in model inputs.
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The price forecast and model input region boxes are linked but you can only select multiple regions from price forecast. Try selecting different regions from both the region boxes to see how they relate. |
Chart Options
Clicking “show options” will open a menu for both the price forecast and model input chart.
Deselect or select AEMO price forecasts in price forecast chart. This allows you to compare pd4castr price forecast with AEMO’s price forecast.
You may select up to four different rundatetimes to compare changes in forecasts.
Selecting rundatetimes applies to both price and model input charts.
When more than one rundatetime are selected only one model input is charted at a time.
Hover over 'i' symbol next to input variables to see a precise definition of input variables.
Chart Features
Multiple tool tips
Select the tool tip for multiple tool tips
Deselect for a single tool tip
Auto refresh
Auto refresh is ON by default and this will update the charts automatically when new data are published.
Auto refresh will turn OFF when multiple rundatetimes are selected. This is to prevent the charts from updating whilst you are inspecting historical data. However you may switch Auto refresh to ON even when multiple rundatetimes are selected.
Zoom
You may hold down left mouse button and drag in any direction to zoom into the area.
Reset Zoom will appear which you may click to restore chart.
p7day unique features
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7 DAY Performance is measured for forecasts beyond the predispatch time horizon only. |
pd4castr 7d performance metrics page measures the historical accuracy of the latest pd4castr 7d model as of the model’s release date and compares performance with AEMO’s forecasts over the same period. The performance metrics used are Absolute Mean Error and Average Error.
The user also has the option to apply conditions to the metrics by limiting either the rundatetime range, forecast settlement hours and/or actual rrp range.
Table contents
All fields in the table are averages for the sample size shown.
Absolute Mean Error is the average of the magnitude of the difference between pd4castr or AEMO and the actual price outcome. Note that we don’t use mean squared error because price outcomes do not follow a normal distribution and volatile price outliers would otherwise dominate the metric.
Average Error is the average of the difference between pd4castr or AEMO and the actual price outcome.
Average Price provides a frame of reference for the error metrics.
Sample size reflects both the length of time the model has been operating and the filters applied in Options (below).
Note that actual RRP for settlementdates between the half hour are not factored into the calculation.
Options
Options apply filters to the performance metrics.
By default all model forecasts after the release date are included in the metric calculations.
Rundatetime will measure performance for forecasts made between the rundatetimes (inclusive).
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By default Min Date is set to the beginning of the pd4castr 7d service not from the release date of the model. |
Settlement Date Hours will measure performance for forecast settlementdate hours between Min Hour and Max Hour (inclusive). Note that forecasts on the half hour are included in the calculations. E.g. MinHour=14, MaxHour=20 will include settlementdates from 14:00 to 20:30.
Actual RRP will measure performance only for settlementdates where the actual RRP is between Min RRP and Max RRP.
PD performance metrics
To be released soon. Note that AEMO’s PD forecast errors are currently better than pd4castr when the time horizon is less than 8 hours (give or take). As the forecast time horizon approaches, AEMO’s forecasts generally become more accurate since they hold all of the information that is consumed by the National Energy Market Dispatch Engine (NEMDE). One way to think about this is AEMO’s actual dispatch outcome is effectively a forecast at zero time in the future.