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A new “recent prices feature” was added to give the model some context for the current pricing environment. This feature is the median price for a window around the forecast time for the most recent three days. For example, for a forecast occurring in 2 days at 11am, the model generated the median value for prices between 10am-12pm for the three days before the forecast was run.
A number of additional experiments were conducted on the 7 day forecast model, with the major modifications including:
The 50th percent probability of demand features were augmented with 10th percent probability of demand data
The new recent prices features mentioned previously
A new time of day feature
A new weekday/weekend feature.
e Cup did not have a significant impact on the performance metrics.
Predispatch model | p7day model | |
|---|---|---|
Model_id | 20230729_213406_CB_2 | 20230213_012319_CB_7D_1 |
Previous model release date | 20th April 2023 | 20th April 2023 |
Latest release date (after retraining) | 8th August 2023 | 8th August 2023 |
Machine Learning Algorithm | Ensemble predictor: gradient boosting | Ensemble predictor: gradient boosting |
Training Period | 1st October 2020 to 20th July 2023 | 1st October 2020 to 20th July 2023 |
Hyper-parameter type | A | A |
Hyper-parameter notes | No weighting across time periods | No weighting across time periods |
Target | Dispatchprice (30min resolution) | Dispatchprice (30min resolution) |
Input (and training) variables | PREDISPATCHPRICE rrp DISPATCHPRICE last 3 day average actual RRP for same time PREDISPATCHREGIONSUM (intervention = 0) hours_out time_of_day day_type (weekday_or_weekend) dispatchableload netinterchage (availablegeneration - uigf) (dispatchablegeneration - scheduled_clearedmw) ss_solar_clearedmw ss_solar_uigf ss_wind_clearedmw ss_wind_uigf totaldemand totalintermittentgeneration | STPASA_REGIONSOLUTION hours_out time_of_day day_type (weekday_or_weekend) aggregatepasaavailability aggregatescheduledload netinterchangeunderscarcity aggregatecapacityavailable ss_solar_cleared ss_wind_uigf ss_wind_cleared ss_solar_uigf demand10 demand50 totalintermittentgeneration demand_and_nonschedgen |
Validation Results
These are the results of the best model generated through our experimentation process and compares the results with the previous model across our validation set (our test period).
| Info |
|---|
Average error is equal to Predicted Prices minus Actual Prices. |
All error metrics are in $/MWhr.
PD Results
Metric/Region | Absolute Mean Error New Model | Absolute Mean Error Previous Model | Average Error New Model | Average Error Previous Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
NSW1 | 37.16954 | 63.55691 | 19.63544 | 38.2957 |
VIC1 | 29.91769 | 37.21212 | 6.468355 | 2.998254 |
QLD1 | 36.46522 | 132.3778 | 15.79482 | 112.1593 |
SA1 | 45.14167 | 65.13762 | 19.56986 | 35.5676 |
TAS1 | 19.53866 | 17.71054 | 9.396361 | 6.877853 |
7 Day Results
Metric/Region | Absolute Mean Error New Model | Absolute Mean Error Previous Model | Average Error New Model | Average Error Previous Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
NSW1 | 34.06431 | 48.10104 | 15.01693 | 37.08693 |
VIC1 | 31.66891 | 44.83715 | 1.215206 | 19.20936 |
QLD1 | 39.10014 | 53.91976 | 17.32682 | 35.32128 |
SA1 | 45.46252 | 104.0136 | 21.62486 | 78.54663 |
TAS1 | 24.07958 | 45.70449 | 14.92562 | 39.71673 |
| Info |
|---|
Variables that imply binding interconnectors (such as limits and marginal values) are currently not included as features. |
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Previous release history
6th June 2023
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