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brett gebert

brett gebert

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Note

  1. All pdBidr price variables are priced at the RRP, ie. at the node. This includes SRMC and trader price parameters. Hence bid Pricebands must be divided by the MLF in any calculations or conditions so that all price values are from the same frame of reference. For example if volume is to be allocated to the first PriceBand < SRMC it implies the first Priceband/MLF < SRMC.

  2. pdBidr allocation logic includes a condition that ensures volume cannot be allocated to PB9 or PB10. This condition may be disabled.

  3. Constraint_status data source is currently set by the Bid Parameter “Constraint Status” which should be set to 0 (no constraints) or 1 (constrained off). Under no circumstances should it be set to -1 (constrained on). Our analysis to date suggests that a dynamic constraint_status provides negligible no measureable benefit but increases rebids, increases code complexity and makes retrospective analysis more difficult.

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PT

Condition

Explanation

10

TPmax < FRRP

Expected price is sufficiently above SRMC that I want to ensure unit operates at full capacity

1

SRMC < FRRP <= TPmax

Expected price is above SRMC but I’m willing to move volume out of PB1

-1

TPmin < FRRP <= SRMC

Expected price is below SRMC but I want to allocate volume near SRMC

-10

FRRP <= TPmin

Expected price is significantly below SRMC and I want to avoid being dispatched whilst prices are likely to stay very low

PT for the next three dispatch intervals

Info

The latest dispatch price (ActRRP) is also included in the definition of PT for the first three dispatch intervals. The actual RRP is included to allow for the scenario where actual prices are low but forecast prices are not low. Without this logic it is possible for actual prices to be very low (e.g. -$500) but volume will remain in PB1 because forecast prices are high (e.g. $0)). Hence the following definition applies for the next three dispatch intervals in a bid:

iff for dispatch interval at time t where

t <= current_datetime + 15 (minutes) then

if min(ActRRP, FRRPt) > max(TPmax , SRMC+) then PTt = 10

if min(ActRRP, FRRPt) > min(TPmax , SRMC+) and min(ActRRP, FRRPt) <= max(TPmax , SRMC+) then PTt= 1

if min(ActRRP, FRRPt) > min(TPmin , SRMC+) and min(ActRRP, FRRPt) <= min(TPmax , SRMC+) then PTt = -1

if min(ActRRP, FRRPt) <= min(TPmin , SRMC+) then PTt = -10

The reason to include ActRRP for the first three dispatch intervals is that we have found earnings outcomes can be consistently improved when the dispatch price is below SRMC but the forecastRRP is greater than TPmax. Effectively the price forecast is not reflecting actual price outcomes and hence without considering dispatch price the bid allocation can maintain volume allocation to priceband 1 which ensures a positive target even though prices are below SRMC.

Price_phase

The price_phase (PP) defines the trajectory of expected prices.

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if FRRP <= min(TPmin , SRMC+) then PT = -10

PT for the next three dispatch intervals

Info

The latest dispatch price (ActRRP) is also included in the definition of PT for the first three dispatch intervals. The actual RRP is included to allow for the scenario where the actual prices are low but forecast prices were not low. Without this logic it is possible for actual prices to be very low (e.g. -$500) but volume will remain in PB1 because forecast prices are high (e.g. $0)). Hence the following definition applies for the next three dispatch intervals in a bid:

iff for dispatch interval at time t where

t <= current_datetime + 15 (minutes) then

if min(ActRRP, FRRPt) > max(TPmax , SRMC+) then PTt = 10

if min(ActRRP, FRRPt) > min(TPmax , SRMC+) and min(ActRRP, FRRPt) <= max(TPmax , SRMC+) then PTt= 1

if min(ActRRP, FRRPt) > min(TPmin , SRMC+) and min(ActRRP, FRRPt) <= min(TPmax , SRMC+) then PTt = -1

if min(ActRRP, FRRPt) <= min(TPmin , SRMC+) then PTt = -10

The reason to include ActRRP for the first three dispatch intervals is that we have found earnings outcomes can be consistently improved when the dispatch price is below SRMC but the forecastRRP is greater than TPmax. Effectively the price forecast is not reflecting actual price outcomes and hence without considering dispatch price the bid allocation can maintain volume allocation to priceband 1 which ensures a positive target even though prices are below SRMC.

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