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Summary
pd4castr performance metrics page measures the historical accuracy of the latest pd4castr model after as of the model’s release date and compares performance with AEMO’s forecasts over the same period. The performance metrics used are Absolute Mean Error and Average Error.
The user also has the option to apply conditions to the metrics by limiting any or all of the;
rundatetime range,
this allows you to measure performance over a specific time period,
forecast settlement hours,
this allows you to measure performance for a specific time of day, e.g. evening peak, and
actual rrp range
this allows you to exclude certain price outcomes that may skew the results.
Model type and release date
This information is shown in both the home page and the link in DAEG. The convention follows:
Model_version: v[date][model_id]
For example: v2023.04.04A means that model_id, A, was last updated on the 4th of April 2023.
DAEG showing model version and link to pd4castr
Selecting Regions
Just like DAEG and WAEG you may select any number or regions to chart pd4castr’s forecast price. Note that the colour palette is fixed for each region.
Model inputs are charted for only a single region. If multiple regions are selected then the first selected region is charted in model inputs.
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The price forecast and model input region boxes are linked but you can only select multiple regions from price forecast. Try selecting different regions from both the region boxes to see how they relate. |
Chart Options
Clicking “show options” will open a menu for both the price forecast and model input chart.
Deselect or select AEMO price forecasts in price forecast chart. This allows you to compare pd4castr price forecast with AEMO’s price forecast.
You may select up to four different rundatetimes to compare changes in forecasts.
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Chart Features
Multiple tool tips
Select the tool tip for multiple tool tips
Deselect for a single tool tip
Auto refresh
Auto refresh is ON by default and this will update the charts automatically when new data are published.
Auto refresh will turn OFF when multiple rundatetimes are selected. This is to prevent the charts from updating whilst you are inspecting historical data. However you may switch Auto refresh to ON even when multiple rundatetimes are selected.
Zoom
You may hold down left mouse button and drag in any direction to zoom into the area.
Reset Zoom will appear which you may click to restore chart.
p7day unique features
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